[SMM analysis] how long can the nickel price hit a new high and there are few transactions in the lower reaches?

SMM9, March 10: Shanghai Nickel has been fluctuating since it reached the year's high at the end of July, and this week, with the help of bullish funds, it broke through the new high on the upper edge of the range and refreshed its listing. At the same time, Renni also hit its highest level since 2014. The sharp rise in nickel prices is mainly due to strong support from fundamentals.

The spot price of nickel opposite to futures nickel is the spot price of nickel. Today, the average price of SMM nickel electrolytic nickel was 154650 yuan / ton, an increase of 4650 yuan / ton, or 3.10%, compared with yesterday. According to SMM research, nickel prices continue to brush new highs, there are few transactions downstream, and the market is extremely light. Today, the spot rising water of nickel board fluctuates and falls; today, the quoted price of Russian nickel rising water is 900001100 yuan / ton (to 2110 contract), and Jinchuan nickel spot rising water is reduced to 1000001200yuan / ton (against 2110 contract). In terms of nickel beans, the price of nickel beans in the market remained low, and the price of nickel beans rose 50000yuan / ton to the 2110 contract, with general market trading. In addition, the accumulation range of domestic pure nickel this week is nearly 2000 tons.

"Click to view the spot quotation of SMM nickel industry chain.

On the news side, the recent double typhoons in the Philippines have the risk of affecting nickel ore shipments. The production of some nickel-iron projects in Indonesia has been delayed due to the epidemic, and the supply release is lower than expected. In addition, the recent sharp decline in LME inventories may also be the trigger for market concern.

On the supply and demand side, although the production reduction of stainless steel is expected to be gradually implemented, the reduction in demand for pure nickel is relatively small. Although the growth rate of nickel demand in the direction of new energy has slowed down, the growth rate of nickel sulfate production is still large, which is far greater than the reduction of nickel demand caused by the limited production of stainless steel. Therefore, the support of nickel price is on the strong side.

But from a comprehensive point of view, the contradiction between supply and demand of nickel fundamentals does not change in the direction, and the nickel price may fall after the pull-up sentiment fades. The risk point is that the delivery time of the Castle Peak High Ice Nickel project is approaching, and if the market expectations can not be fulfilled on time, nickel prices are likely to continue to rise emotionally.